Spatio-temporal variability study of Shigar Basin Glaciers, Central Karakoram Region, Pakistan

Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is often termed the "Third Pole" due to its vast cryospheric reserves. Glaciers are highly sensitive to climate change. Within the Central Karakoram, Shigar Basin represents crucial hydrological system where understanding glacial dynamics is paramount for sustainable water resource management. The impact of climate change on the glaciers of Shigar basin was studied for better sustainable management of water resources and future predictions regarding any risk. A total 448 glaciers were delineated in Shigar Basin and assessed from 1990 to 2022 using Sentinel, Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ALOS PALSAR Digital Elevation Model. The total glacier area increased from 2408.3 ± 60 in 1990 to 2425.2 ± 60.2 km² in 2022 with an increase of about 16.9 km². Notably, 33% of the glaciated area is covered with supraglacial debris. During the study period, glaciers in the Shigar Basin remained stable, enhancing long-term prospects for water resource planning and risk management in downstream regions reliant on glacial meltwater. For robust future projections, establishment of meteorological stations at higher altitudes and acquisition of field data are imperative for future study of these complex water bodies. These findings are critical for improving climate resilience, regional water security, and informed glacier-related hazard mitigation efforts.