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Droughts with no agro-climatological extremes.

Sneha Kulkarni1, Yohei Sawada2

  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan. snehakulkarni@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp.

Scientific Reports
|October 21, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Droughts can occur without extreme climate shifts, driven by socio-economic factors. Understanding these "Droughts with No Agro-Climatological Extremes" (DNACE) is crucial for effective drought management, especially in developing nations.

Keywords:
CDIDNACEDrought vulnerabilityGDISSocio-Economic droughts

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Social Science
  • Disaster Risk Reduction

Background:

  • Drought impacts are often amplified by socio-economic vulnerabilities, not just climatic extremes.
  • Droughts can manifest even with normal agro-climatological conditions due to underlying societal issues.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the global spatio-temporal distribution of "Droughts with No Agro-Climatological Extremes" (DNACE).
  • To identify the socio-economic drivers behind DNACE events worldwide.

Main Methods:

  • Integrated a sub-national geocoded disaster database (GDIS) with a combined drought indicator (CDI).
  • Analyzed 91 DNACE events globally between 2001 and 2020.

Main Results:

  • Identified 91 DNACE events globally, concentrated in Asia, Africa, and the Americas.
  • Developing countries accounted for 97% of events, affecting 36 million people.
  • Key drivers included political instability, conflicts, forced migrations, and economic crises.

Conclusions:

  • Droughts are complex events influenced significantly by socio-economic factors.
  • Mitigation and adaptation strategies must incorporate socio-economic considerations for effective drought management.