Global Cold-Water Coral Biodiversity Redistribution Under Projected Climate Change

Area of Science:

• Marine Biology
• Deep-Sea Ecology
• Biogeography

Background:

• Cold-water corals (CWCs) are crucial for deep-sea ecosystems but their global distribution and climate vulnerability are poorly understood.
• Understanding CWC biodiversity patterns is essential for effective conservation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To delineate the global biogeography of CWCs.
• To assess how CWC biodiversity patterns may shift under future climate change scenarios.
• To identify biodiversity hotspots and climate refugia for conservation planning.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an ensemble of machine-learning models to predict distributions of 741 CWC species.
• Forecasted changes in species richness, community composition, and climate refugia under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0).
• Identified and statistically validated ten distinct CWC bioregions based on species co-occurrence.

Main Results:

• Major CWC biodiversity hotspots identified in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.
• Forecasted poleward and depth shifts in species distributions, especially under high-emission scenarios.
• Predicted biodiversity losses in shallow, low-latitude regions and increased community turnover.

Conclusions:

• Climate change poses a significant threat to CWC biodiversity and deep-sea ecosystems.
• Urgent climate action is needed to mitigate impacts on vulnerable CWC habitats.
• The study provides a global framework for prioritizing CWC conservation efforts.