Armed conflict and child vaccination in Nigeria: the deprioritised preventive care
Dongqin Wang1, Aidan Hollis2, Bryan Mercurio3
1Faculty of Law, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong dongqinwang@cuhk.edu.hk.
Insights
Armed conflict in Nigeria significantly reduces childhood vaccination rates. Increased conflict intensity near homes lowers immunization probabilities, highlighting demand-side effects beyond infrastructure disruption.
Area of Science:
- Global Health
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Childhood vaccination is crucial for preventing infectious diseases.
- Armed conflict poses significant challenges to public health systems globally.
- Nigeria experiences substantial burdens from both conflict and vaccine-preventable diseases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of armed conflict intensity on paediatric vaccination uptake in Nigeria.
- To differentiate between supply-side (infrastructure) and demand-side (parental decisions) effects of conflict on vaccination.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for Nigeria.
- Integrated DHS data with detailed geolocated conflict event information.
- Employed statistical analysis to correlate conflict intensity with child vaccination probabilities.
Main Results:
- A one standard deviation increase in conflict intensity was associated with a 0.73–1.80 percentage point reduction in vaccination rates.
- This represents a 2.10% to 4.60% decrease relative to the mean vaccination rate.
- Findings suggest conflict affects vaccination demand due to perceived security risks.
Conclusions:
- Armed conflict negatively impacts paediatric vaccination uptake in Nigeria.
- Conflict-induced security concerns may lead parents to deprioritize routine immunizations.
- Results underscore the need for tailored immunization strategies in conflict-affected regions.
Abstract:
This study investigates how armed conflict influenced paediatric vaccination uptake in Nigeria. Combining Demographic and Health Survey data with detailed conflict event information, we examine the relationship between the intensity of reported conflicts near children's residences and their vaccination probabilities. Our findings reveal that a 1 SD increase in conflict intensity reduced vaccination rates by 0.73-1.80 percentage points (between 2.10% and 4.60% of the mean). The results suggest that beyond disrupting healthcare infrastructure, conflict may affect vaccination rates through demand-side effects, where heightened security risks lead parents to deprioritise preventative health investments. These findings contribute to understanding vaccination challenges in conflict zones and inform targeted immunisation strategies.
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