Ischemic heart disease mortality due to fine particulate matter in Seoul between 2016 and 2020

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) continues to rank among the leading global causes of mortality, consistently linked to long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Despite a declining trend in the annual average PM_2.5 concentration in Seoul, they still fail to meet the air quality standards set by the Korean Ministry of Environment (15 µg/m³). We aim to estimate the IHD mortality attributable to PM_2.5 and the health benefits derived from reducing PM_2.5 concentration in Seoul, South Korea, between 2016 and 2020.

We utilized machine-learning-based PM_2.5 data, Global Exposure Mortality Model, mortality data, and population data to estimate the burden of IHD mortality attributed to PM_2.5 and the benefits in IHD mortality associated with reductions in PM_2.5 concentration in Seoul between 2016 and 2020. We also estimated the health benefits by considering the reference concentration in three reduction scenarios.

During the study period, the average PM_2.5 concentration was 23.5 µg/m³, with 10,971 IHD deaths among individuals aged ≥ 25 years. We estimated 2,861 excess IHD deaths (aged ≥ 25 years) attributable to PM_2.5 exposure between 2016 and 2020. Under the PM_2.5 reduction scenario, achieving a PM_2.5 concentration of 15 µg/m³ corresponds to an avoidable mortality rate of approximately 8%.

Our study assessed the burden of IHD mortality attributable to ambient PM_2.5 and the potential health benefits associated with its reduction in Seoul between 2016 and 2020. The findings suggest that continued efforts to reduce PM_2.5 concentrations could significantly mitigate IHD mortality, particularly in the context of an aging population.