Establishment and Evaluation of a Risk Prediction Model for Abnormal Circadian Rhythm of Blood Pressure in Young

Qinhao Chen1, Lei Shi2, Xiang Li1

  • 1Department of Electrocardiogram, 901st Hospital of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Joint Logistics Support Force, Hefei, Anhui Province, People's Republic of China.

Insights

A new nomogram accurately predicts abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythms in young hypertension patients. Key predictors include lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, systemic inflammatory response index, triglycerides, and uric acid.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Hypertension Research
  • Biomarkers

Background:

  • Circadian blood pressure rhythm abnormalities are prevalent in young hypertensive patients.
  • Early detection and intervention are crucial for managing hypertension and preventing complications.
  • Existing predictive models may lack clinical applicability or accuracy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a simple, clinically applicable nomogram for predicting abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythm in young hypertensive patients.
  • To identify independent risk factors associated with abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythms.
  • To enable early detection and timely intervention for at-risk individuals.

Main Methods:

  • A cohort of 211 young hypertensive patients was studied, with external validation using 203 additional patients.
  • Patients were classified into dipper and non-dipper groups based on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.
  • Multivariate logistic regression identified independent risk factors, which were used to construct and validate a nomogram.

Main Results:

  • Univariate analysis showed significant differences in lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), triglycerides (TG), and uric acid (UA) between groups.
  • Multivariate analysis identified decreased LMR, increased SIRI, elevated TG, and elevated UA as independent predictors.
  • The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.883 (internal) and 0.844 (external).

Conclusions:

  • LMR, SIRI, TG, and UA are significant independent predictors of abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythms in young hypertensive patients.
  • The developed nomogram is a rapid, accurate, and clinically valuable tool for risk stratification.
  • This nomogram facilitates early detection and intervention, potentially improving patient outcomes.
Abstract

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