Current Status, Trends, and Forecast Analysis of LBP Disease Burden Attributable to Occupational Ergonomic Factors in...

With the acceleration of population aging and industrial structural transformation in China, LBP related to occupational ergonomic factors has become an increasingly serious public health issue. This study aims to assess the disease burden of LBP caused by occupational ergonomic factors in China, reveal its long-term trends, key driving factors, and future changes, fill existing research gaps, and provide scientific evidence for optimizing occupational health policies and intervention strategies for high-risk populations.

Data on Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), YLD rates, and age-standardized YLD rates for occupational ergonomics-related LBP from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) models assessed the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. Decomposition analysis quantified contributions from population aging, epidemiological shifts, and growth. Bayesian APC (BAPC) models projected disease burden trends through 2040.

In 2021, China had 3.314 million YLDs from occupational ergonomics-related LBP, with a crude YLD rate of 232.9/100,000 and an age-standardized rate of 178.4/100,000. Women and individuals aged 50-54 bore higher burdens. From 1990 to 2021, total YLDs slightly increased, but YLD rate and age-standardized rate declined annually by 0.3% and 1.5%, respectively. APC modeling revealed significant period and cohort effects. Decomposition analysis identified epidemiological changes as the primary driver of burden shifts. Projections indicate that by 2040, age-standardized YLD rates will fall to 194.3/100,000, but total YLDs will rise among people aged 60+, reflecting aging and cumulative occupational exposure.

Occupational ergonomic-related LBP remains a significant burden in China, especially among older and high-risk workers. Although the per capita burden is decreasing, demographic shifts and work-related exposures will sustain overall burden. Comprehensive ergonomic interventions and targeted prevention for high-risk groups are essential for improving occupational health and guiding policy development.