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Global vegetation production may decrease in this century due to rising atmospheric dryness.

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Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may boost plant growth, but climate warming-induced dryness will counteract this effect. Global vegetation production (GPP) is projected to peak mid-century and then decline due to increased atmospheric dryness.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Climate Change Research
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Previous Earth system models predicted increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) would stimulate global vegetation production via the CO2 fertilization effect.
  • This fertilization effect enhances photosynthesis and plant growth.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how increased atmospheric dryness, driven by climate warming, affects global vegetation production.
  • To project future global vegetation gross primary production (GPP) under changing climate conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized measurements from global eddy-covariance sites.
  • Employed a process-based model for projections.
  • Analyzed the impact of CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) on GPP.

Main Results:

  • Global vegetation GPP is projected to peak around the mid-21st century and subsequently decline.
  • The peak GPP increase is estimated at only 5.4 ± 0.5% compared to present levels.
  • Increased atmospheric dryness significantly counteracts the CO2 fertilization effect, particularly in tropical regions.
  • Non-CO2 greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) contribute to warming and dryness, negatively impacting GPP.

Conclusions:

  • Climate warming-induced atmospheric dryness substantially reduces terrestrial vegetation production.
  • The terrestrial carbon sink may be limited in the future due to these drying effects.
  • Future vegetation productivity is constrained by water availability, not just CO2 levels.