Lifetime prevalence of child maltreatment reports and child protective services involvement in Illinois

To generate more accurate estimates of the cumulative prevalence of child maltreatment reports and subsequent Child Protective Services (CPS) involvement in Illinois by identifying and adjusting for duplicate identifiers in administrative records.

Illinois children in 2023.

Using CPS records from the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services (2003-2023), we applied the synthetic life table method to estimate cumulative probabilities of maltreatment reports, substantiations, Intact Family Services (IFS) openings, and foster care placements by age 18. We identified duplicate person IDs using Social Security Numbers (SSNs), available for approximately 31 % of records. For children without SSNs, we adjusted first-time event rates by aligning them with those of children with SSNs who shared similar age, race/ethnicity, and CPS involvement level.

SSN-adjusted estimates indicate that 26.7 % of Illinois children are projected to be reported to CPS by age 18, compared to 50.0 % based on unadjusted data. The adjusted lifetime prevalence of substantiations was 13.0 %, IFS openings 5.3 %, and foster care placements 3.6 %. Racial disparities persisted: 52.8 % of Black children were projected to be reported to CPS, compared to 22.3 % of White and 22.2 % of Latino children. Disparities were smaller for foster care placements.

Duplicate identifiers may substantially inflate estimates of CPS involvement. Even conservative, SSN-adjusted estimates suggest high cumulative exposure to CPS, particularly for Black children. These findings underscore the need for more reliable identifiers in CPS records and support ongoing efforts to reduce coercive system contact while expanding preventive and supportive services.