Spatio-temporal land use/land cover changes and subsequent ecosystem service value dynamics in Musanze District,...

Musanze District is an ecologically fragile but yet important region in Rwanda due to its rich biodiversity and critical ecosystem functions. However, over the past 20 years, the district has experienced major land use and land cover (LULC) changes, affecting its ecosystem service values (ESVs). This study analyzed the dynamics in land use and its associated ecosystem service values in Musanze District. The former was achieved through a supervised classification of Landsat satellite images (2004-2024) in ArcGIS 10.8, while the ESVs were estimated through a meta-analytical function transfer method calibrated with East African data. Findings disclosed a 22% increase in cropland and a 39% decrease in forest cover. The total ecosystem service values declined, from 215,680.24 million US$ in 2004 to 98,699.69 million US$ in 2024, a reduction of 54.24%, with a sharp decline in specific services. Food provision dropped from US$129.97 million to US$92.17 million, and pollination declined from US$381.75 million to US$270.72 million. Forest loss was a major driver of reduced food production, pollination, and climate regulation. Although the correlation between LULC and ESV changes was strong (r = 0.87), the relationship was not statistically significant (p = 0.13), reinforcing the view that ESV dynamics cannot be explained by LULC change alone but require consideration of broader socio-ecological factors. The study highlights the ecological cost of unplanned agricultural expansion and urban development. Weak zoning, urban sprawl, and poor enforcement of environmental regulations have worsened ecosystem degradation. To reverse this trend, Rwanda must promote sustainable farming, ecological restoration, and integrated urban planning. This study pioneers quantifying ecosystem service losses in Musanze using regionally calibrated data.