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Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions-Clarification.
Larissa Lubiana Botelho1,2, Cailan Jeynes-Smith1,3, Sarah A Vollert1,4
1School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Ecology Letters
|October 27, 2025
Summary
This paper defends ecosystem model predictions against criticism, clarifying that structural issues, not just feedback mechanisms or calibration methods, limit their conservation decision-making accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Ecological Modeling
- Conservation Science
Background:
- Concerns were raised regarding the generalizability of conclusions from 'Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions'.
- Criticisms focused on the exclusion of density-dependent compensatory feedback and the use of automated calibration with overfitting penalties.
Purpose of the Study:
- To address specific criticisms concerning ecosystem model generalizability.
- To clarify the authors' original position and defend their findings on model limitations.
Main Methods:
- Detailed exploration of Woodstock and Harris's key criticisms.
- Clarification of the authors' stance on ecosystem model limitations.
- Reiteration of the importance of structural issues in model performance.
Main Results:
- The criticisms regarding density dependence and calibration methods overlook broader structural limitations of current ecosystem models.
- The authors' original conclusions regarding the inability of calibrated ecosystem models to predict conservation outcomes remain valid.
Conclusions:
- Structural issues in ecosystem models present fundamental challenges to predicting conservation outcomes.
- Further research is needed to develop more robust and reliable ecosystem models for conservation planning.
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