A Data-Driven Approach for Estimating Type 2 Diabetes-Related Costs in Greece

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) constitutes a major health problem, reaching alarming rates over the last decades, especially due to contemporary lifestyle and associated obesogenic environments, as well as the aging population. Diabetes not only causes social consequences but also leads to increasing healthcare costs, posing a significant challenge for the health system. This paper applies a five-step approach for estimating T2D-related costs in Greece. The approach initially estimates the T2D-related ICD10 prevalence and the target population. Next it applies the appropriate therapeutic protocols to identify the most appropriate treatments. Subsequently, it calculates the total cost of medical treatments for each target population, based on the distribution of patients between the different treatments and treatment lines. Finally, based on the diagnostic and treatment protocols, it calculates the annual direct costs associated with the cost categories. Using the estimated future population of the country, the proposed methodology can also project the budget required, under certain conditions, to deal with T2D. The analysis estimated that T2D-related costs in 2021 under rational use of resources were EUR 1,397,871,172.55 billion and EUR 1,512,934,947.63 billion projected in the year 2030 considering the aging effect, per cost category, and in total, presenting an increase of approximately 115 million euros in 2030 compared to 2021. The term "rational use of resources" in this study refers to the use of internationally recognized, evidence-based diagnostic and therapeutic protocols, as adopted by the Greek Ministry of Health. This scenario represents an idealized standard of care rather than actual real-world adherence and is used to estimate the potential resource needs under optimal medical practice conditions. An inflation rate of 4.2% was applied to costs between 2021 and 2030. The analysis showed that the highest percentage (39%) of the total T2D-related healthcare expenditures is associated with complications that occur in T2D patients. Despite a comparatively modest prevalence of T2D in Greece relative to other European and Mediterranean countries, the economic burden associated with its management remains high. The aging of the population will lead to an increase in the total cost of T2D. The applied methodology of estimating budgets by aggregating categories of expenses under a specific disease (ICD10), instead of dividing budgets into categories of expenses, can successfully lead to the optimization and rationalization of expenses according to actual needs. The findings underline the significant economic burden of T2D in Greece, particularly due to complications and population aging. These results emphasize the urgent need for health policy strategies focusing on prevention, early intervention, and the efficient allocation of healthcare resources. The methodology applied can serve as a decision-making tool for forecasting healthcare budgets and optimizing expenditures under different population and treatment scenarios.