What Could Be Responsible for Some Mosquito-Borne Diseases? Is It Poverty, Gender Inequality, Underdevelopment,...

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major cause of mortality and disease burden worldwide. This study aimed to assess the trends in total disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to five mosquito-borne diseases, as well as their association with poverty, gender inequality, underdevelopment, globalization, and climate change, both globally and for the period from 1990 to 2021.

This ecological time-series study with a longitudinal analytical framework used a total of 27 variables obtained from different sources. The dependent variable of the study was mosquito-borne DALYs. The trend of the numerical variables over time was analyzed using joinpoint regression. The relationships between the dependent variable and the independent variables were examined using univariate linear regression, LASSO regression, and ridge regression. p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

During the study period, mosquito-borne DALYs decreased by 1.13 per 100,000 persons per year. The LASSO regression model explained 97.9% of the variability in mosquito-borne DALYs. Poverty headcount ratio at $6.85 a day, share of seats in parliament (female), global greenhouse gas emission, and Gender Inequality Index were found to be the most influential variables on mosquito-borne DALYs, respectively. When the optimum lambda, R ², MSE, and RMSE values were analyzed, the LASSO regression model was found to be more compatible than ridge regression for this data set.

The results demonstrate that mosquito-borne DALYs are primarily driven by poverty but are also influenced by gender inequality and climate change. These results highlight the urgent need for integrated and multifaceted public health strategies that go beyond traditional vector control methods.