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A Novel Disaster Insurance Model With Capacity Reservation for Public-Private Collaboration.

Heyi Liu1, Qiuhong Zhao1,2, Qi Lin3

  • 1School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|October 27, 2025
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a disaster insurance model with capacity reservation for regional governments. Zero-deductible contracts are optimal for localized disasters, improving preparedness and insurer profitability.

Keywords:
disaster insurance modeldisaster preparedness capacity reservationgovernment–private sector collaboration

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Area of Science:

  • Disaster Management and Public Policy
  • Game Theory and Economic Modeling
  • Insurance and Risk Management

Background:

  • Effective management of non-catastrophic, localized disasters requires enhanced regional preparedness and response capabilities.
  • Current strategies often lack integrated financial and operational mechanisms for public-private collaboration in disaster management.
  • The need for innovative governmental strategies to bolster disaster resilience in localized areas is increasingly recognized.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze a comprehensive disaster insurance model with capacity reservation functionality for regional governments.
  • To investigate government-insurer interactions using game-theoretical modeling to optimize disaster preparedness strategies.
  • To provide insights into optimal contract design and policyholder behavior for localized disaster management.

Main Methods:

  • Game-theoretical modeling was employed to analyze interactions between government entities and insurers.
  • Backward induction was used to derive solutions for the proposed disaster insurance model.
  • A case study in China, focusing on Typhoon Rumbia, was utilized for model validation.

Main Results:

  • Zero-deductible disaster insurance contracts were identified as an optimal mechanism for localized disasters, reducing barriers and ensuring insurer viability.
  • Insurers find long-term cooperation more beneficial for low-volatility, short-duration events, improving capacity amortization and operational efficiency.
  • Policyholder decisions on stockpiling are significantly influenced by lead times, spot market prices, and specific disaster characteristics.

Conclusions:

  • The developed model offers a framework for enhancing intraregional disaster preparedness through integrated financial and operational strategies.
  • Unconventional contract designs, such as zero-deductible policies, can be effective in specific disaster contexts.
  • The findings support the development of flexible, scenario-specific disaster readiness strategies for regional governments, advancing both theory and practice.