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Study on urban passenger transport carbon reduction pathways based on system dynamics.
Scientific Reports
|October 28, 2025
Summary
Achieving dual-carbon goals requires integrated strategies for passenger transport carbon emission control. Multidimensional policy synergy, combining technological upgrades, structural optimization, and behavioral guidance, is essential for effective urban transport development.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Urban Planning
- Transportation Engineering
Background:
- Passenger transport carbon emission control is crucial for achieving dual-carbon goals during rapid urbanization.
- Current urbanization trends necessitate effective strategies to mitigate transport-related emissions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a system dynamics model for analyzing passenger transport carbon emissions.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of various single and combined policy interventions for emission reduction.
Main Methods:
- Developed a system dynamics model integrating population, economic, energy, traffic, and emission control factors.
- Validated variable relationships and established a simulation model.
- Conducted scenario simulations for single and dual-policy interventions.
Main Results:
- Public transit optimization and energy technology upgrades were more effective than travel demand management as single interventions.
- Dual-policy combinations significantly enhanced emission reduction efficiency.
- The most effective dual-policy combinations were public transport and energy technology (11.32%), followed by public transport and travel demand (10.58%), and energy technology and travel demand (8.94%).
Conclusions:
- Single policy interventions are insufficient to meet emission reduction targets.
- A multidimensional policy synergy is essential for systematic carbon reduction in urban transport.
- Integrating technological upgrades, structural optimization, and behavioral guidance offers a comprehensive pathway for sustainable urban transport development.
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