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  3. Research Domains
  5. Agricultural, Veterinary And Food Sciences
  7. Agriculture, Land And Farm Management
  9. Agricultural Production Systems Simulation
  11. Predicting The Potential Spread Of Diabrotica Virgifera Virgifera In Europe Using Climate-based Spatial Risk Modeling

Predicting the Potential Spread of Diabrotica virgifera virgifera in Europe Using Climate-Based Spatial Risk Modeling

Ioana Grozea1, Diana Maria Purice1, Snejana Damianov1

  • 1Faculty of Agriculture, University of Life Sciences "King Mihai I" from Timișoara, Calea Aradului 119, 300645 Timisoara, Romania.

Insects
|October 28, 2025

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The western corn rootworm poses a significant threat to European maize crops, with climate change projected to expand its establishment risk. Surveillance and targeted policies are crucial for managing this invasive pest.

Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Entomology
  • Invasive Species Ecology
  • Climate Change Impact Assessment

Background:

  • The western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) is a major alien pest of maize (Zea mays) globally.
  • Its establishment in Europe threatens crop yield and stability due to root and aerial organ feeding.
  • Climate change is a key factor influencing the invasive pest's future distribution.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the establishment risk of the western corn rootworm in Europe for 2034, 2054, and 2074.
  • To identify high-risk zones and predict the pest's range expansion under future climate scenarios.
  • To inform anticipatory pest management strategies for sustainable maize production.

Main Methods:

  • Spatial simulations using QGIS, incorporating national centroid data, risk criteria, and temperature anomaly maps (Copernicus, ECA&D, 1992-2024).
Keywords:
Europeinvasive pest speciesmaize agroecosystemspest range expansion

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  • Analysis integrated geographic coordinates, climate data, and maize distribution to model pest establishment.
  • Risk assessment considered pest biology, including reproductive potential and thermal tolerance.

    • Main Results:

    • Consistently high establishment risk predicted for southern and southeastern Europe.
    • Projected expansion of risk zones towards central and western European regions by 2074.
    • Risk zone spread correlated with warming trends and maize availability, showing spatial aggregation.

    Conclusions:

    • Anticipatory pest management planning is essential, requiring expanded surveillance in at-risk areas.
    • Targeted policies are needed for regions not yet affected by the western corn rootworm.
    • Future research should refine spatial predictions through field validation and genetic monitoring.
    pest surveillance
    spatial modeling
    thermal threshold
    western corn rootworm