Deep Learning-Based 30-Day Mortality Prediction in Critically Ill Bone and Bone Marrow Metastasis Patients: A...

Bone and bone marrow Metastasis (BBM) are life-threatening complications of advanced malignancies, frequently requiring intensive care and associated with high short-term mortality. However, prognostic tools specifically tailored to critically ill BBM patients are limited. This multicenter cohort study aimed to develop and validate deep learning models for predicting 30-day mortality using ICU data from MIMIC-IV, eICU-CRD, and the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University. After univariate screening, XGBoost-Boruta and Lasso regression identified 11 key clinical features within 24 h of ICU admission. Thirteen deep learning models were trained using five-fold cross-validation, and their performance was evaluated through AUC, average precision, calibration, and decision curves. TabNet achieved the best internal performance (AUC 0.878; AP 0.940) and maintained strong discrimination in both same-region (eICU: AUC 0.840; AP 0.932) and cross-regional (Xinjiang: AUC 0.831; Accuracy 80.5%) validation. SHAP and attention-based interpretability analyses consistently identified SOFA, serum calcium, and albumin as dominant predictors. A TabNet-based online calculator was subsequently deployed to enable bedside mortality risk estimation. In conclusion, TabNet demonstrates potential as an accurate and interpretable tool for early mortality risk stratification in critically ill BBM patients, offering support for more timely and individualized decision-making in BBM-related critical care.