Classification of Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized Asian Elephants Using Machine Learning and Survival Analysis: A...

Captive Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) frequently present to hospitals with complex, multisystemic diseases, yet veterinarians lack objective tools to predict and classify clinical outcomes. Decision-making often relies on experience or anecdote, and few studies have applied data-driven approaches in wildlife medicine. This study developed a machine learning-based classification model using routinely collected clinical data. A total of 467 medical records from hospitalized elephants at Thailand's National Elephant Institute (2019-2024) were retrospectively analyzed. Four variables (age, sex, disease group, and length of stay [LOS]) were used to train four classification algorithms: Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Naïve Bayes, and multinomial logistic regression. The Random Forest model achieved the highest classification performance (accuracy = 86.3%; log-loss = 0.374), with disease group, LOS, and age as key predictors. Survival analysis revealed distinct hospitalization trajectories across disease groups: acute conditions like elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus-hemorrhagic disease and toxicosis showed rapid early declines, whereas dental and renal cases followed more prolonged courses. Our findings demonstrate the preliminary feasibility of outcome classification in elephant care and highlight the potential of clinical data science to improve in-hospital prognostication, monitoring, and treatment planning in zoological and wildlife medicine.