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Precautionary Health Behaviours as Potential Confounders in COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Studies
Chloé Wyndham-Thomas1, Leonie de Munter2, Kok Yew Ngew1
1P95 Clinical and Epidemiology Services, Diestsevest 125, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Precautionary health behaviors (PHBs) confounded COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates during the first booster season, increasing VE by 6-9%. Confounding was not observed in the second season, indicating context-dependent effects.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Control
Background:
- Precautionary health behaviors (PHBs) are crucial non-pharmaceutical interventions for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
- Investigating PHBs' confounding effect on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) is vital for accurate public health guidance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the impact of PHBs on COVID-19 VE estimates in a European test-negative case-control study.
- To determine if PHBs act as a confounder in VE calculations during different COVID-19 vaccination periods.
Main Methods:
- A European multicentre test-negative case-control study (id.DRIVE) enrolled adults with severe acute respiratory infection.
- Surveys captured PHB indicators in the 3 months prior to admission; Fisher's exact test analyzed associations.
- VE estimates were calculated with and without adjustment for PHBs.
Main Results:
- PHBs varied between the first (2021-2022) and second (2022-2023) COVID-19 booster seasons.
- During the first booster season, PHBs confounded VE estimates, increasing them by 6-9 percentage points.
- No significant confounding by PHBs was detected during the second booster season.
Conclusions:
- PHBs can be a significant confounder in COVID-19 VE studies.
- The degree of confounding by PHBs is context-dependent and varies by study population and epidemiological situation.
- Further research is needed to establish guidelines for incorporating PHBs into VE models.
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