Spatiotemporal changes in heat stress exposure in India, 1981-2023
Arpit Shah1,2, Anish Sugathan3,4, Deepak Malghan1,5
1Centre for Public Policy, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, Bengaluru, India.
Nature Communications
|October 29, 2025
Summary
Extreme heat stress exposure (HSE) in India has increased by 3.3% across districts from 1981-2023. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of HSE, offering crucial insights for public health and policy.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Climate Science
Background:
- India faces significant vulnerability to extreme heat stress due to climate change.
- Heat Stress Exposure (HSE) poses a growing threat to public health and occupational safety.
Purpose of the Study:
- To comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of heat stress exposure (HSE) across India's districts from 1981-2023.
- To provide district-level data relevant for policymakers and public health practitioners.
- To assess changes in outdoor occupational exposure to heat stress.
Main Methods:
- Utilized high-resolution (0.1° spatial, hourly temporal) data spanning 1981-2023.
- Focused analysis on India's administrative districts for policy relevance.
- Compared heat stress exposure duration between 1981-1995 and 2011-2023.
Main Results:
- Observed a 3.3% increase in average HSE duration across districts between the two periods.
- Identified significant variations in HSE evolution based on time of day, season, and region.
- Estimated changes in outdoor occupational exposure between 2019-2023.
Conclusions:
- Heat stress exposure is increasing in India, necessitating targeted interventions.
- Findings underscore the importance of considering HSE beyond average temperature changes.
- The study provides critical data for public health strategies and climate adaptation policies.
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