Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Lycium ruthenicum in China

Understanding the climate change impacts on the geographical distribution of plant species is vital for biodiversity conservation. Lycium ruthenicum, a second-grade protected plant in China, holds considerable medicinal and ecological value; however, its potential habitat distribution under climate change remains uncertain. By utilizing occurrence records and geographical and environmental data, we optimized a maximum entropy model and evaluated the current and future potential habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum in China. The main results were as follows: (1) The distribution of L. ruthenicum was primarily influenced by the precipitation of the warmest quarter, topsoil base saturation, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. (2) Under the current conditions, the potential suitable area of L. ruthenicum was approximately 2.25 × 10⁶ km² in China, predominantly distributed in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia. (3) An obvious reduction in the predicted suitable area of L. ruthenicum was found under future climate scenarios, with the centroid primarily shifting northeastward. These findings highlight the potential vulnerability of this medicinally and ecologically important species and underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to ensure its long-term survival.