Carbon budget accounting and carbon comprehensive management zoning: a case study in Fenhe river basin

Clarifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of the carbon budget at a county level and establishing a robust evaluation index system for carbon management zoning are crucial for advancing low-carbon development and achieving carbon neutrality objectives in the target county. This study focuses on the Fenhe River Basin as a case study. By examining the spatial and temporal variations in land-use carbon budgets in the region for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2018, and 2023, an index system was developed based on three dimensions: social economy, resource utilization, and the ecological environment. Using the entropy weight method, we assessed the current status of low-carbon development across 41 counties within the study area. A three-dimensional spatial model was introduced for comprehensive carbon management zoning. The results indicate that: (1) a notable increase in carbon emissions occurred within the Fen River Basin from 2000 to 2023, exhibiting significant spatial disparities; (2) carbon absorption, influenced by vegetation patterns, remained relatively stable over the study period, contributing to a marked upward trend in the carbon budget; (3) the coupling development status of the three subsystems in each county is relatively poor; (4) the counties in the Fenhe River Basin can be divided into three types: emissions reduction area, optimization area, and control area, and four subtypes: comprehensive restricted area, high socio-economic development area, high resource utilization area, and high ecological environment zone. By introducing standard energy consumption per unit GDP, this paper proposes an efficient and convenient carbon emission accounting method and establishes a carbon management zoning method based on a three-dimensional spatial model. The research results can provide theoretical support for achieving regional low-carbon development.