The great American car crime decline

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Automotive Engineering
• Public Policy

Background:

• The vehicle theft rate in the United States experienced an unexplained 80 percent decline between 1990 and 2020.
• Legislation in the late 1980s incentivized security improvements, particularly for high-risk vehicles.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the causes behind the significant reduction in vehicle theft rates in the US.
• To determine the impact of electronic engine immobilizers on vehicle crime reduction.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of historical data, including Congressional reports and automobile industry data from the Federal Register.
• Comparative analysis of theft rates for vehicles equipped with electronic engine immobilizers versus a matched control group.
• Examination of the timeline of declining theft rates in relation to the increasing prevalence of secure vehicles in the national fleet.

Main Results:

• Theft of vehicles equipped with electronic engine immobilizers declined by 80 percent relative to a control group.
• The decline in theft of new, more secure vehicles preceded the decline in theft of older, less secure vehicles.
• A gradual, prolonged decline in vehicle theft correlated with the increasing adoption of immobilizers in the vehicle fleet.

Conclusions:

• The electronic engine immobilizer is identified as the primary cause of the substantial decrease in American vehicle crime.
• The study suggests that the electronic engine immobilizer may be the most impactful crime prevention device in recent history.
• The prolonged decline reflects an ongoing "arms race" between automotive security advancements and criminal circumvention efforts.