[Predictive role of dynamic changes in liver stiffness measurement for liver-related endpoint events in chronic...

Objective: To investigate the role of dynamic changes in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in predicting liver-related end-point events (LREs) occurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) with liver fibrosis during long-term antiviral therapy. Methods: Data were collected from CHB patients whose liver biopsy results showed Metavir fibrosis stage F2～F4 or clinically diagnosed cirrhosis. Entecavir antiviral therapy was mainly administered. Follow-up was conducted once every six months. Clinical data such as demographic information, blood routine tests, liver biochemical parameters, HBV virological and serological test results, and LSM were collected. Dynamic changes in LSM were categorized into four types based on LSM levels before treatment (0y) and following two years of antiviral therapy (2y) : (1) LSM_0y < 10 kPa and LSM_2y < 10 kPa, i.e., LSM persisted < 10 kPa; (2) LSM_0y < 10 kPa and LSM_2y ≥ 10 kPa, i.e., LSM increased to ≥ 10 kPa; (3) LSM_0y ≥ 10 kPa and LSM_2y < 10 kPa, i.e., LSM decreased to < 10 kPa; (4) LSM_0y ≥ 10 kPa and LSM_2y ≥ 10 kPa, i.e., LSM persisted ≥ 10 kPa. The predictive role of the dynamic changes of LSM in the occurrence of LREs was analyzed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used for quantitative data. Fisher's exact test was used for categorical data. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Survival curves were plotted and compared using the Kaplan-Meier. Results: A total of 713 CHB cases with liver fibrosis were included, among whom 512 had cirrhosis. The cumulative incidence of LREs following two years of antiviral therapy was low in patients with LSM_0y < 10 kPa during follow-up (all patients: LSM persisted < 10 kPa 1.6% vs. LSM increased to ≥ 10 kPa 0%; cirrhosis subgroup: LSM persisted < 10 kPa 0% vs. LSM increased to ≥ 10 kPa 0%). The 5-year cumulative incidence of LREs following two years of antiviral treatment was significantly higher in patients with LSM0y ≥ 10 kPa than in those with LSM persisting ≥ 10 kPa and those with LSM decreasing to < 10 kPa during follow-up (all patients: LSM persisted ≥ 10 kPa 12.4% vs. LSM decreased to < 10 kPa 3.6%; cirrhosis subgroup: LSM persisted ≥ 10 kPa 12.6% vs. LSM decreased to < 10 kPa 4.3%). Patients with LSM persisting at ≥ 10 kPa had a significantly increased risk of LREs following two years of antiviral treatment compared with those whose LSM decreased to <10 kPa during follow-up after adjusting for age, gender, baseline body mass index, platelet count, and alanine aminotransferase (all patients, aHR=2.96, 95% CI: 1.41～6.24, P=0.005; cirrhosis subgroup, aHR=2.74, 95% CI:1.26～5.95, P=0.011). Conclusions: LSM<10 kPa before antiviral treatment had a lower risk of liver-related endpoint events following two years of treatment among CHB patients with liver fibrosis. LSM ≥10 kPa before antiviral treatment and LSM persisted ≥10 kPa two years following treatment had a significantly higher occurrence risk of liver-related endpoints than LSM<10 kPa following treatment among CHB patients with liver fibrosis.