The Next Lithium Boom? Assessment of U.S. Domestic Production Pathways through Economic and Environmental Lenses

This study examines current and future lithium production from primary resources in the United States, with a focus on economic viability and environmental sustainability using factory-level data. Four production methods/resources were evaluated: conventional brine extraction from Silver Peak, direct lithium extraction from Clayton Valley, sedimentary rock in Thacker Pass, and hard-rock spodumene sourced from Canada and refined in Texas. The key economic performance indicators include capital and operational expenditures (CAPEX and OPEX), net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period (PBP) across 21 lithium carbonate price scenarios ($10,000 to $50,000/ton LCE) over 20 years. DLE shows the lowest CAPEX but the highest OPEX due to higher energy use. Estimated OPEX per ton LCE is $6350 for Thacker Pass, $4600 for Silver Peak, $7850 for DLE, and $6100 for Hard Rock. Environmental assessments show CO₂ emissions (tons per ton LCE) of 10 for Thacker Pass, 4.3 for Silver Peak, 17.4 for DLE, and 17.6 for Hard Rock. While DLE and hard rock methods have higher emissions, Silver Peak stands out as the most environmentally efficient due to its use of solar evaporation and low chemical usage.