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Future copper loads into the European aquatic environment.

Sean David William Comber1, Stijn Baken2,3

  • 1Biogeochemistry Research Centre, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK.

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Summary

Copper demand will rise with the green transition, but aquatic environmental loads are projected to increase by only 24% by 2050. This is due to copper in wiring and motors having no direct water pathway, with transport uses driving future increases.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Ecotoxicology
  • Chemical Engineering

Background:

  • The green transition necessitates increased copper use, raising concerns about potential rises in environmental copper loads.
  • Understanding future copper pathways to aquatic ecosystems is crucial for environmental management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict changes in copper loads to the European Union's aquatic environment up to 2050.
  • To identify key sources and drivers of copper pollution under future scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Calculated baseline copper loads from various sources in the European Union.
  • Projected future loads using literature reviews, expert input, and considering factors like population, transport, agriculture, climate, and regulation.
  • Analyzed the impact of increased copper demand from the green transition on aquatic environments.

Main Results:

  • Current EU copper load is 13,048 tonnes/year; projected to increase by 24% to 16,193 tonnes/year by 2050.
  • Increased loads primarily driven by antifouling paints from marine shipping and brake lining wear from increased vehicle use.
  • Expected reductions from landfills, mines, sewage, and aquaculture due to stricter environmental legislation.

Conclusions:

  • Increased copper use in the green transition is unlikely to cause proportional increases in aquatic environmental loads.
  • Future copper load increases are mainly linked to transport-related sources with direct aquatic pathways.
  • Environmental regulation plays a significant role in mitigating copper pollution, though future regulatory changes introduce uncertainty.