Future copper loads into the European aquatic environment

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecotoxicology
• Chemical Engineering

Background:

• The green transition necessitates increased copper use, raising concerns about potential rises in environmental copper loads.
• Understanding future copper pathways to aquatic ecosystems is crucial for environmental management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict changes in copper loads to the European Union's aquatic environment up to 2050.
• To identify key sources and drivers of copper pollution under future scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Calculated baseline copper loads from various sources in the European Union.
• Projected future loads using literature reviews, expert input, and considering factors like population, transport, agriculture, climate, and regulation.
• Analyzed the impact of increased copper demand from the green transition on aquatic environments.

Main Results:

• Current EU copper load is 13,048 tonnes/year; projected to increase by 24% to 16,193 tonnes/year by 2050.
• Increased loads primarily driven by antifouling paints from marine shipping and brake lining wear from increased vehicle use.
• Expected reductions from landfills, mines, sewage, and aquaculture due to stricter environmental legislation.

Conclusions:

• Increased copper use in the green transition is unlikely to cause proportional increases in aquatic environmental loads.
• Future copper load increases are mainly linked to transport-related sources with direct aquatic pathways.
• Environmental regulation plays a significant role in mitigating copper pollution, though future regulatory changes introduce uncertainty.