Health in Transition: New Evidence on Obesity Dynamics in Post-Soviet Countries

This study investigated the impact of economic growth and unemployment on obesity within the Obesity Kuznets Curve (OKC) framework across 15 post-Soviet countries using annual data from 1991 to 2016. Employing the Augmented ARDL (A-ARDL) cointegration test for the first time in this context, the study reveals cointegration in nine countries, with the OKC hypothesis validated for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. Initial economic growth increases obesity rates, but beyond specific GDP thresholds, healthier lifestyles emerge. The FADF-SB unit root test confirms variable stationarity at varying levels. Findings also highlight unemployment's diverse regional effects: a negative impact in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan but a positive one elsewhere. The Fourier Toda-Yamamoto test identifies bidirectional causality between GDP and obesity in Kyrgyzstan and varying causal relationships in other countries. These results emphasize the complex interplay between economic and health factors, informing policies to address obesity trends in transitioning economies.