Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Clustering Analysis of Human Rabies - China, 2005-2024

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Zoonotic Diseases
• Public Health

Background:

• Rabies is a significant zoonotic disease in China.
• Control measures led to a steady decline in human cases from 2008-2023.
• A 36.9% increase in cases occurred in 2024 compared to 2023.

Purpose of the Study:

• Analyze epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of rabies in China from 2005-2024.
• Identify high-risk populations and geographic areas.
• Inform targeted prevention strategies for rabies control.

Main Methods:

• Descriptive epidemiological methods were used.
• Spatial clustering was assessed using Moran's I statistics.
• Retrospective space-time scan analysis (SaTScan) identified disease clusters.
• High-frequency areas were defined as counties reporting cases in ≥10 years.

Main Results:

• Rabies incidence declined for 16 years post-2007 peak but resurged in 2024.
• Cases concentrated in central/southern regions (76.0%), with males, farmers, and 41-70 year-olds most affected.
• Spatial analysis showed decreasing High-High clusters, shifting to central agricultural zones (Henan, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui).
• 352 high-frequency counties identified; seven significant clusters detected in central/southwestern regions, peaking July-November (2006-2013).

Conclusions:

• China's rabies control successfully shifted the epidemic from widespread to localized transmission.
• The 2024 resurgence occurred in identified endemic hotspots.
• Precision prevention strategies targeting persistent high-risk counties are essential to sustain control.