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Scenario evolution modeling and probabilistic assessment of seawater intrusion accident in ports: An integrated framework combining disaster theory and multi-method simulation

  • 0Safety Quality Technology Research Center, China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China.
Plos One +

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October 31, 2025

|

October 31, 2025

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Seawater intrusion accidents threaten port safety. This study models accident scenarios, identifying power interruption (S11) as the most probable threat (57.2%), aiding targeted emergency planning.

Area Of Science

  • Marine disaster management
  • Port safety engineering
  • Risk assessment

Background

  • Seawater intrusion accidents are increasing in frequency and severity, posing significant threats to port operations.
  • Effective disaster impact control and emergency planning require detailed accident scenario evolution analysis.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To develop a model for analyzing the evolution of seawater intrusion accident scenarios in ports.
  • To determine the probability of occurrence for various accident scenarios.
  • To provide a scientific basis for optimizing port emergency plans and recovery strategies.

Main Methods

  • Utilized disaster system theory and the "disaster-causing body, disaster-affected body, and disaster-resistant body" framework.
  • Employed the scenario element method to identify typical scenarios like concrete erosion and power interruption.
  • Integrated Petri nets, cloud models, and Monte Carlo simulations for quantitative analysis of evolutionary paths.

Main Results

  • Identified typical seawater intrusion scenarios, including concrete structure erosion and power supply interruption.
  • Quantitatively derived accident scenario evolutionary paths with high reliability through 10,000 iterations.
  • Established a probability grading system for accident scenarios, with S11 (equipment failure due to power interruption) identified as the most likely (57.2%).

Conclusions

  • The developed model effectively links qualitative scenario identification with quantitative probability assessment.
  • Scenario S11 poses a "Moderately Likely" risk, highlighting the vulnerability of port equipment to power supply disruptions.
  • Findings support enhanced port disaster prevention, mitigation, and post-disaster recovery planning.

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