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Modeling mumps incidence in China: spatiotemporal clusters and evolving risk factors (2005-2020)
Ke Hu1, Chaojie Li2, Xingjin Yang3
1Xiamen Haicang Hospital, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
BMC Public Health
|November 1, 2025
Summary
Mumps incidence in China declined but showed regional variations. Prevention strategies must adapt to local socioeconomic factors and transmission dynamics for effective control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Mumps poses a significant public health challenge in China, characterized by seasonal peaks and spatial variations.
- Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of mumps is crucial for developing effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of mumps incidence in China from 2005 to 2020.
- To identify key socioeconomic and healthcare factors influencing mumps transmission across different regions.
Main Methods:
- Integrated space-time scanning statistics and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR).
- Analyzed mumps incidence data alongside economic, educational, demographic, and healthcare variables.
Main Results:
- Mumps incidence decreased overall but peaked in 2012, with persistent high-risk areas in western China.
- Illiteracy and population density impacts evolved, while household size emerged as a stronger risk factor.
- Healthcare resources had region-specific effects, and GDP per capita showed varied associations with risk.
Conclusions:
- Regionally tailored prevention strategies are essential for mumps control in China.
- The study offers a methodological framework for spatiotemporal disease surveillance and evidence-based policymaking.
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