Potential Public Health Impact of Updated COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in Malaysia: Epidemiological Data Update

This study estimated the potential public health and economic impacts of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Malaysia using an updated COVID-19 vaccine.

A previously published Markov decision-tree model (2021-2022) was updated with the latest epidemiology data from Malaysia (October 2022-September 2023). This updated model was used to assess the outcomes of alternative vaccination strategies using the updated COVID-19 vaccine. Age-specific inputs were derived from Malaysian epidemiological data and published sources. The model projected health outcomes (cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) and economic outcomes (direct medical costs and productivity losses) across various age and risk categories.

Vaccinating individuals aged 60 and above, as well as high-risk individuals aged 6 months to 59 years with vaccine coverage of 20%, was projected to prevent 91,824 infections, 1477 hospitalizations, and 53 deaths. The model estimated total savings of MYR 90.9 million in direct medical costs attributed to COVID-19 treatment and MYR 110.4 million in indirect costs attributed to COVID-19 illness. Expanding coverage among individuals aged 60 and above, as well as high-risk individuals of any age, to 50% could further increase the reduction in deaths, hospitalizations, infections, and costs by up to 150%.

When considering recent updated epidemiology data and expected vaccination coverage, vaccination strategies appear to have a smaller impact, largely caused by the reduction in vaccine coverage. However, despite this, using an updated COVID-19 vaccine could still reduce the health and economic burden of COVID-19 in terms of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, direct medical costs, and indirect productivity losses in Malaysia, especially among high-risk populations and older adults.