Foreseeing versus feeling: how accuracy of affective forecasting relates to health behavior change

Whereas the importance of affective processes for health-related motivation and behavior is well established, little research has assessed either the accuracy or potential impact of accurate affective forecasts about health behaviors.

The present study addressed 3 research questions: (1) How accurate are affective forecasts about health behaviors? (2) Does forecasting accuracy influence health behavior performance, and (3) future motivation?

We conducted a longitudinal study of 8 health behaviors (N = 857). Measures of the reasoned action approach variables, habit, and intention were taken at baseline. At the 3-month follow-up, participants reported behavioral performance, future motivation, and the affect experienced in relation to each behavior. Accuracy of affective forecasting was indexed by the difference between anticipated versus experienced affect.

Participants generally underestimated how good performing health behaviors would make them feel. Overestimating and underestimating affect were both associated with lower behavioral performance and future motivation, whereas greater forecasting accuracy predicted increased behavior and future motivation, even controlling for reasoned action approach variables and habit. Importantly, forecasting accuracy interacted with anticipated affect, such that forecasts that were both positive and accurate were associated with increased behavior and motivation.

This study demonstrates that affective expectations and experiences both matter for motivation and action and underscores the importance of affective forecasting for health behavior change.