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Synergies Between Observed Warming and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events
Francisco Estrada1,2,3, Pierre Perron4, Yohei Yamamoto5,6
1Instituto De Ciencias de La Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma De México, Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, Mexico.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|November 4, 2025
Summary
Global warming intensifies El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on extreme weather. This amplified ENSO effect increases risks to populations, economies, and ecosystems worldwide.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Meteorology
Background:
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of global interannual climate variability.
- ENSO significantly influences weather patterns, leading to extreme events with widespread societal consequences.
- The interaction between ENSO and global warming remains poorly understood, yet critical for predicting future climate extremes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how current global warming has altered the effects of ENSO on temperature and precipitation extremes.
- To assess the amplified risks posed by ENSO-driven extreme events under anthropogenic climate change.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of climate data to quantify the impact of ENSO on extreme temperature and precipitation events.
- Modeling the interaction between anthropogenic warming and ENSO's influence on global climate patterns.
Main Results:
- Global warming has demonstrably amplified ENSO's effects on temperature and precipitation extremes worldwide.
- Significant modifications in the spatial patterns of ENSO's impacts on extreme weather have been observed.
- Warming has increased the vulnerability of populations, economies, agriculture, and ecosystems to ENSO-related extreme events.
Conclusions:
- The interplay between anthropogenic forcing and ENSO exacerbates the risk of extreme weather events globally.
- Future climate conditions (2024/2025) may see amplified ENSO impacts, potentially exceeding 1.5°C global temperature anomalies.
- Urgent understanding and mitigation strategies are needed to address the heightened risks from amplified ENSO effects in a warming world.
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