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Modeling supply risk propagation in tungsten industry chain: A multi-layer network framework with inter-layer
Qianqian Xu1, Pengli An2, Tong Jiang1
1School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Journal of Environmental Management
|November 4, 2025
Summary
Global tungsten supply chain risks are analyzed using a multi-layer network model. China plays a pervasive role, while Australia can trigger wider impacts through cross-layer disruptions, highlighting the need for targeted mitigation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Materials Science
- Economics
- Network Science
Background:
- Tungsten is critical for aerospace and defense due to its unique properties.
- Global demand growth and industry concentration create vulnerabilities in tungsten supply chains.
- Understanding risk propagation from supply shocks is essential for economic stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To construct a multi-layer network model of the tungsten industry chain.
- To simulate and analyze risk propagation patterns from supply shocks.
- To identify key countries and their roles in systemic risk transmission.
Main Methods:
- Development of a tungsten industry chain multi-layer network (TICMN) using 2022 global trade data.
- Integration of the coupled PageRank (CPR) algorithm with a cascading failure model.
- Simulation of risk propagation from identified key risk sources.
Main Results:
- Country centralities vary significantly across industry chain layers and feedback strengths.
- Inter-layer risk propagation is more sensitive to impact strength than intra-layer transmission.
- China demonstrates a "full-chain penetration" role; Australia is a key driver of cross-layer impacts.
Conclusions:
- A country's systemic risk potential depends on centrality and functional role within the industry chain.
- Targeted mitigation strategies are needed to address vulnerabilities in the global tungsten supply chain.
- Policymakers can use these findings to enhance resource security and economic resilience.
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