Identification of Critical Risk Factors in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Projects

Identifying critical risk factors is essential for controlling risk propagation and improving the safety management of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Existing research has primarily focused on risk occurrence probability and potential consequences, with relatively less attention given to risk factor analysis, particularly their interactions within complex systems. To address this gap, 36 risk factors and 6 common accidents were identified through the literature review, analysis of accident reports, and expert interviews. We then established the CCS risk factor interaction network and identified critical structural nodes by topological analysis. To further examine the actual impact of these identified nodes and different parameters on risk propagation, we conducted a systematic simulation based on a susceptible-infected-recovered model. The results show that incomplete safety systems, inadequate safety supervision, and inadequate safety training serve as critical driving nodes, with a high potential to initiate widespread risk propagation, whereas equipment overload, adverse weather, and improper emergency handling act as critical bridge nodes whose intervention effectively suppresses risk propagation. Furthermore, the risk intervention step, propagation rate, and recovery rate affect the scale and duration of risk diffusion. This study aims to enhance system resilience by providing valuable insights for safety management in CCS projects.