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Updated: Jan 12, 2026

Protocol for Dengue Infections in Mosquitoes A. aegypti and Infection Phenotype Determination
Published on: July 4, 2007
Trends and cyclical patterns of dengue disease in Mexico: A 40-year time series analysis
Jaime Briseno-Ramirez1, Judith Carolina De Arcos-Jiménez2, Ana María López-Yáñez2
1Hospital Civil de Oriente, Nuevo periferico oriente s/n, C.P, Tónala, Jalisco 45425, Mexico.
Purpose:
To quantify long-term trends and multi-year cycles in dengue in Mexico (1985-2025) and examine recent serotype-severity patterns.
Methods:
We integrated open national surveillance data from the Morbidity Yearbook (1985-2024) and Open Data (2020-2025) using the official estimated-cases definition. Monthly series underwent STL decomposition, Butterworth filtering, periodogram, and autocorrelation analyses. Stationarity was assessed in prespecified windows (1985-2000; 2000-2015; 2015-2025) and by geography (coastal/high-burden vs inland). Serotype distribution and hospitalizations (2020-2025) were summarized among laboratory-confirmed cases and compared across years with χ² tests.
Results:
Over 40 years we identified 1715,456 estimated cases; annual burden increased (Mann-Kendall z = 3.25; Sen's slope ≈ +1275 cases/year). A recurrent multi-year oscillation overlaid the seasonal cycle, with a spectral peak near 5.8 years and an ACF secondary maximum at ∼4.3 years; the signal persisted in coastal/high-burden states and across historical windows. Since 2023, DENV-3 predominated (86 % in 2024; 94.9 % by May-2025) and coincided with higher hospitalization proportions.
Conclusions:
Dengue in Mexico shows a significant long-term rise and a reproducible ∼5-year cycle. Cycle-aware baselines, paired with serotype surveillance, could sharpen early-warning thresholds and targeting of vector control.
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