Association between CBC-derived inflammatory biomarkers and mortality in osteoarthritis patients: Results from NHANES

Qizhang Man1,2, Song Liu3, Yifeng Huang2

  • 1Department of Anesthesiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

Medicine
|November 5, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Inflammatory markers from complete blood counts predict mortality in osteoarthritis (OA) patients. The monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) emerged as the strongest predictor of both all-cause and cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality in OA.

Area of Science:

  • Rheumatology
  • Cardiovascular Epidemiology
  • Hematology

Background:

  • The prognostic value of complete blood cell count (CBC)-derived inflammatory markers in osteoarthritis (OA) outcomes is not fully understood.
  • Inflammation plays a key role in OA pathogenesis and progression, potentially influencing systemic disease and mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between CBC-derived inflammatory indices and all-cause and cardio-cerebrovascular disease (CCD) mortality in a US adult population with OA.
  • To identify the most potent inflammatory biomarker for predicting mortality risk in OA patients.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 4763 OA patients from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2018) with mortality data from the National Death Index.
  • Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox proportional hazards modeling, restricted cubic splines, random survival forest, and receiver operating characteristic curves were used.
  • Evaluated markers included neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII).

Main Results:

  • Increased levels of log-transformed inflammatory markers were significantly associated with higher all-cause and CCD mortality (P < .05).
  • Random survival forest and ROC analyses identified MLR as the most robust predictor of mortality.
  • NLR, MLR, SII, and other indices showed significant associations with increased mortality risk; NLR, MLR, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, and SII demonstrated nonlinear relationships with all-cause mortality.

Conclusions:

  • CBC-derived inflammatory markers, particularly MLR, possess significant predictive value for mortality in patients with osteoarthritis.
  • These findings highlight the potential of simple blood tests to assess systemic risk and guide clinical management in OA patients.
  • MLR demonstrated superior predictive capacity for mortality outcomes compared to other inflammatory indices.