Pandemic paradox: traffic mortality trends during COVID-19 in Campinas, 2019-2023

The aim of this study was to analyze road traffic mortality patterns during pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods in Campinas, Brazil.

This is a retrospective observational study conducted in Campinas from 2019 to 2023, analyzing 17,726 road traffic crashes with 406 deaths, using databases from the Campinas Municipal Development Company and São Paulo State Traffic Accident Information System. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with road traffic deaths. Risk factors analyzed included alcohol consumption, nighttime driving, gender, crash location, vehicle type, and weekend occurrence. Chi-square tests were used to compare proportions across periods.

Despite a 32.0% reduction in traffic volume, mortality rates increased from 10.46 to 13.76 per 100,000 inhabitants, with a 26.7% increase in years of potential life lost. The frequency of road traffic deaths increased from one death every 2.9 days to one every 2.0 days. Speeding was the main contributing factor for violations, representing 67% during the pandemic period. The highest risk emerged from the combination of alcohol consumption, speeding, and nighttime driving. Motorcyclists accounted for 43.1% of deaths, increasing to 47.0% in the post-pandemic period.

A pandemic paradox emerged where reduced traffic led to increased mortality. Risk behaviors established during the pandemic became entrenched rather than temporary, particularly affecting young male motorcyclists.