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Updated: Jan 12, 2026
A Neonatal Mouse Spinal Cord Compression Injury Model
Published on: March 27, 2016
Chinese and global trends in pediatric spinal cord injury burden (1990-2021) with projections to 2045
You-Ping Tao1, Chen-Hao Zhao2, Ji-Gong Wu2
1Department of Spine Surgery, The Ninth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, No. 9 Anxiangbeili, ChaoYang District, Beijing, 100101, China. taoyoupingmail@126.com.
Insights
Global pediatric spinal cord injury burden decreased from 1990 to 2021, with declines in incidence, prevalence, and disability. However, China is projected to see an increase by 2045, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Traumatology
Background:
- Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a significant global health concern with diverse causes and risk factors.
- Limited comprehensive analyses exist on pediatric SCI trends in China and worldwide.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze temporal trends in pediatric SCI burden (incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability) globally and in China from 1990 to 2021.
- To project future pediatric SCI burden to 2045.
- To identify key demographic and regional factors influencing SCI trends.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data for analyses from 1990 to 2021.
- Employed joinpoint regression to identify significant trend changes.
- Applied a Bayesian age-period-cohort model for future burden projections to 2045.
Main Results:
- Global pediatric SCI incidence, prevalence, and YLD rates significantly decreased between 1990 and 2021 (AAPC ranging from -1.13% to -1.37%).
- The highest burden was observed in males, adolescents (15-19 years), and high-sociodemographic index regions, with falls as the leading cause.
- China mirrored global declining trends during this period, but is projected to experience an upward trend by 2045.
Conclusions:
- Despite overall global declines, persistent disparities in pediatric SCI burden and causes necessitate targeted prevention and rehabilitation strategies.
- Equitable resource allocation is crucial, especially for high-risk groups and regions anticipating increasing SCI burdens.
Background:
Spinal cord injury is a catastrophic medical condition and a growing global public health priority, with divergent etiologies, risk factors, and epidemiology. Comprehensive analyses of trends in pediatric spinal cord injury burden both in China and globally are lacking.
Methods:
We investigated temporal trends in pediatric spinal cord injury burden [incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs)] from 1990 to 2021 and projected future burden to 2045 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data. The year with the most significant changes in trends was identified via joinpoint regression analysis. Age-standardized rates, average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and subgroup analyses by injury location, sex, age, and sociodemographic index were calculated. To project burden data to 2045, we employed a Bayesian age‒period‒cohort model.
Results:
Our analyses revealed that global pediatric spinal cord injury incidence [AAPC: - 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): - 1.49 to - 0.76], prevalence (AAPC: - 1.13; 95% CI: - 1.16 to - 1.11), and YLDs rates (AAPC: - 1.37; 95% CI: - 1.41 to - 1.35) decreased significantly from 1990 to 2021. The highest burden was observed in males, adolescents (15-19 years), and high-sociodemographic index regions; falls were the leading cause. China exhibited similar declining trends (e.g., incidence AAPC: - 1.33; 95% CI: - 1.71 to - 0.83). It is predicted that by 2045, the global trend of pediatric spinal cord injury will decline; China will exhibit an upward trend.
Conclusions:
Persistent disparities in pediatric spinal cord injury disease burden and causes necessitate targeted prevention strategies, optimized rehabilitation services, and equitable resource allocation. This is particularly important in high-risk groups and regions with rising burdens.
