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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jan 12, 2026

Modeling The Lifecycle Of Ebola Virus Under Biosafety Level 2 Conditions With Virus-like Particles Containing Tetracistronic Minigenomes
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Modeling the 2022 mpox outbreak with a mechanistic network model.

Emma G Crenshaw1, Jukka-Pekka Onnela2

  • 1Department of Biostatistics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. emma_crenshaw@g.harvard.edu.

BMC Infectious Diseases
|November 5, 2025
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Summary

Behavior change and vaccination significantly reduce mpox transmission among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Early and widespread interventions are most effective in controlling outbreaks.

Keywords:
GBMSMMpoxNetwork modelingSimulation

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Network Science
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The 2022 mpox outbreak disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), highlighting the need for effective control strategies.
  • Uncertainty existed regarding optimal management due to the novel transmission dynamics and scale of the outbreak.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the spread of mpox within a United States-based GBMSM population.
  • To evaluate the impact of behavioral adaptations and vaccination on mpox transmission dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • A dynamic agent-based network model was employed to simulate mpox transmission.
  • The model incorporated data-informed network evolution and behavioral adaptations.

Main Results:

  • Behavior change, reduced one-time partnerships, and vaccination effectively prevent mpox transmission.
  • Early vaccination and behavior adaptation, even in a subset of the population, significantly reduce cumulative infections.
  • Sustained partnerships drove early outbreak spread, while one-time partnerships became primary drivers later in the epidemic.

Conclusions:

  • Mechanistic network models are valuable for studying sexually transmitted infections like mpox.
  • Individual-level behaviors and relationship types play a crucial role in mpox transmission and outbreak control.