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Heatwave increases nighttime light intensity in hyperdense cities of the Global South: a double machine learning
Ramit Debnath1, Taran Chandel1,2, Fengyuan Han1
1University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Summary
Heatwaves increase nighttime economic activity in hyperdense Global South cities, particularly after two days. This effect diminishes with longer heatwave durations, offering insights for urban resilience.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Urban Planning
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- Climate change and urbanization intensify heatwaves, posing risks to urban systems, especially in the Global South.
- Limited adaptive capacity in Global South cities exacerbates heatwave impacts.
- Nighttime light (NTL) radiance serves as a proxy for economic activity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between heatwaves and nighttime light (NTL) radiance in four hyperdense cities.
- To quantify the impact of heatwaves on nighttime economic activity.
- To inform strategies for improving urban resilience to heatwave effects.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a double machine learning (DML) framework for analysis.
- Analyzed data from 2013 to 2019.
- Controlled for local climatic confounders to isolate the effect of heatwaves on NTL.
Main Results:
- A statistically significant increase in NTL radiance was observed in Guangzhou, Cairo, and São Paulo for heatwaves lasting at least two days.
- This indicates a rise in nighttime economic activities during prolonged heat events.
- The observed increase in NTL diminished when heatwave definitions extended beyond the two-day threshold.
Conclusions:
- Heatwaves demonstrably influence nighttime economic activities in hyperdense urban areas.
- The duration of heatwave events is a critical factor in their impact on NTL.
- Findings provide crucial insights for enhancing urban resilience to the nighttime consequences of heatwaves.
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