Who Will Have Enough? Battery Mineral Demand and Sufficiency in Vehicle Producing Countries

Minerals for lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles (EVs) are key to transport decarbonization. Previous studies have quantified regional battery mineral demand and circularity potential based on EV sales. However, it is EV producing (not purchasing) countries that require minerals, and second-hand vehicles are traded internationally, removing them from their original country of sale. Using dynamic country-level material flow analysis from 2024-2050 that includes trade of new and used EVs, we estimate mineral demand and domestic reserves for lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite, and analyze strategies to reduce mineral deficits. Results show global mineral reserve sufficiency, but shortfalls in EV producing countries, making them dependent on imports even in robust recycling scenarios. China only has sufficiency for graphite, while the United States only for lithium in scenarios with smaller lithium-ion batteries or high recycling rates. Minerals in end-of-life LIBs can be recovered through recycling, reducing the geographical concentration of supply; however, the potential to meet mineral demand via recycling in vehicle producing countries is low. Supra-national recycling strategies, strengthened trade relationships between mineral and EV producing countries, and mineral demand reduction actions that support electrification targets would improve circularity potential and reduce mineral supply risks.