Integrating circularity into the 2025 EAT-Lancet framework: a global modelling analysis

The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission shows that a combination of dietary changes, productivity increases, and reduction of wasted biomass by 2050 can largely reduce agricultural land use and greenhouse gas emissions. However, questions remain about the ability to reduce pressures on planetary nitrogen and phosphorus boundaries, suggesting the need for additional action. We assessed how enhancing circularity and optimising the food system for environmental benefits could complement an EAT-Lancet-aligned food systems transformation.

We applied the global Circular Food Systems model-a biophysically based food systems model-that employs innovative measures such as circularity to optimise the food system for environmental benefits, ensuring that it operates within planetary boundaries. We used scenarios developed by the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission multi-model ensemble, comparing a business-as-usual scenario with scenarios that variously optimise food production, reduce wasted biomass, and shift towards a planetary health diet, as well as integrate circularity into the food system to estimate their potential dietary and environmental impacts by 2050.

Comparing 2020 with 2050, we show that on a global average, total nitrogen use to agricultural land could be reduced by 50%, total phosphorus use could be reduced by 73%, total land use for agriculture could be reduced by 76%; and greenhouse gas emissions from food production could be reduced by 75%, thereby creating a safe operating space for 2050. Most environmental gains are derived from dietary shift, food production optimisation, and reducing wasted biomass, but enhanced circularity is key to bringing both nitrogen and phosphorus use within safe planetary boundaries.

Circularity enhances and extends the benefits of an EAT-Lancet style food systems transformation via recycling waste for feed and fertiliser use, and complements but does not replace the need for dietary changes. An integration of solutions is needed to transition food systems to the safe operating space within planetary boundaries.

The AVINA Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, and funding related to the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission.