Integrating circularity into the 2025 EAT-Lancet framework: a global modelling analysis.

Area of Science:

• Food Systems Analysis
• Environmental Sustainability
• Circular Economy

Background:

• The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission highlights dietary shifts and waste reduction for environmental benefits.
• Challenges remain in meeting planetary nitrogen and phosphorus boundaries.
• This study assesses the role of circularity in complementing existing food system transformation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate how enhancing circularity in food systems can optimize environmental benefits.
• To determine if circularity can help meet planetary boundaries for nitrogen and phosphorus.
• To complement the EAT-Lancet Commission's findings on food system transformation.

Main Methods:

• Applied the global Circular Food Systems model, a biophysically based approach.
• Utilized scenarios from the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission multi-model ensemble.
• Compared business-as-usual with scenarios integrating dietary shifts, waste reduction, and circularity.

Main Results:

• Achieved significant reductions in nitrogen (50%), phosphorus (73%), land use (76%), and greenhouse gas emissions (75%) by 2050.
• Dietary shifts, production optimization, and waste reduction drive most environmental gains.
• Enhanced circularity is crucial for meeting nitrogen and phosphorus planetary boundaries.

Conclusions:

• Circularity amplifies the benefits of EAT-Lancet-aligned transformations by recycling waste for feed and fertilizer.
• Circularity complements, but does not replace, the necessity of dietary changes.
• An integrated approach combining circularity, dietary shifts, and waste reduction is essential for sustainable food systems.