Projected Spatial-Temporal Habitat Patterns of the Lady Amherst's Pheasant (Chrysolophus amherstiae) Under Climate...

Global climate change and land use change have led to substantial range contractions and shifts. Even more dramatic changes are projected for the future. The Lady Amherst's pheasant is a typical ground-dwelling bird primarily distributed in China, with very limited flight capabilities, making it more vulnerable to rapid environmental changes. We used a multi-scale ensemble species distribution modeling approach to model the habitat suitability of the Lady Amherst's pheasant and projected the model to several combinations of SSP-RCP scenarios and time. We found that the characteristic scale for most variables is relatively large. The ensemble model had an AUC value of 0.98, outperforming individual models. The area of suitable habitat for the Lady Amherst's pheasant is projected to decrease at varying degrees (-2.1% ~ -62.1%) under different scenarios. Dispersal ability only has a little influence on the assessment of suitable habitat loss (-1.5% ~ -60.9%). Loss of suitable habitat mainly occurred in low-altitude areas, while gain of habitat occurred in medium-to-high-altitude areas. Our results may provide a scientific basis for future conservation strategies of this beautiful pheasant.