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Assessing compound flood drivers in Peninsular India: Multivariate copula-based approach.
Ankita Mukherjee1, Vikas Poonia1, Somil Swarnkar2
1Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT), Bhopal, India.
Journal of Environmental Management
|November 7, 2025
Summary
Compound flooding in Peninsular India is driven by precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture. This study uses advanced copula models to reveal how these factors interact, highlighting the Mahanadi basin
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Climate Science
- Environmental Risk Assessment
- Water Resource Management
Background:
- Floods are increasingly severe due to climate change, with compound flooding understudied in India.
- Peninsular India's floods are influenced by precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture, often underestimated by traditional methods.
- Existing analyses fail to capture the interdependence of flood drivers, leading to potential underestimation of risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To comprehensively assess compound flooding in six major Peninsular Indian river basins using a multivariate analytical framework.
- To investigate the joint dependencies between precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture using copula-based techniques.
- To provide insights into extreme flood event likelihood and inform adaptive management strategies.
Main Methods:
- Employed a multivariate copula-based approach to analyze compound flooding.
- Utilized daily gridded precipitation (IMD), runoff (MERRA-2), and soil moisture (GLEAM) data from 1980-2023.
- Analyzed extreme events at 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds, including exceedance probability, conditional probability, and joint return period.
Main Results:
- Bivariate analyses showed runoff and antecedent soil moisture significantly influence compound flooding, especially in Krishna and Cauvery basins.
- Prolonged wet soil conditions were found to exacerbate flood risks in specific basins.
- Trivariate analysis identified the Mahanadi basin as most susceptible to extreme compound flood scenarios.
Conclusions:
- This study is the first in Peninsular India to use copula techniques for comprehensive compound flood analysis.
- Findings underscore the need for improved flood risk assessment and adaptive strategies in river basins facing climate change.
- Results support enhanced flood forecasting, infrastructure planning, and policy development to mitigate flood damage.
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