Decoding Weather Fingerprints of Upper Respiratory Pathogens: A One-year Observational Study in Northern Greece

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Infectious Disease Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Respiratory infections exhibit seasonal patterns driven by environmental factors.
• Specific meteorological drivers for individual pathogens are not well-defined.
• Understanding these relationships is crucial for public health surveillance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate associations between weather parameters and upper respiratory pathogen prevalence.
• To identify pathogen-specific meteorological determinants in northern Greece.
• To evaluate a novel time-weighted environmental modeling approach.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 1,754 nasopharyngeal specimens from December 2023 to November 2024.
• Multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for pathogen identification.
• Time-weighted approach integrating meteorological data with pathogen incubation periods.

Main Results:

• Winter showed the highest positivity rate for respiratory pathogens.
• Influenza A correlated with colder, humid conditions; Adenovirus with warmer periods.
• Pathogen-specific seasonal and meteorological relationships were identified, including distinct temperature-humidity profiles.

Conclusions:

• Distinct meteorological signatures exist for different respiratory pathogens beyond general seasonality.
• Time-weighted environmental modeling enhances predictive surveillance capabilities.
• Findings support improved public health preparedness for respiratory infections.