Examining the Impact of Permitless Firearm Legislation and COVID-19 on Crime and Arrests in Three Urban Cities

While the number of state legislative changes to relaxed concealed firearm carrying laws continues to increase, research examining the impact of these laws on changes in criminal behavior, particularly in urban contexts, has not kept pace. To enhance our understanding of the potential impact of permitless carry legislative changes, we examined the temporal association between legislative changes and changes in illegal and dangerous behavior most likely to be associated with firearms violence and arrests in Lexington (KY), Oklahoma City (OK), and Tulsa (OK). We use statistical controls to account for a major temporal confounder: the disruption of social order that occurred during and after the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Our findings show violent criminal offenses did not shift in the post-permitless carry period. However, there were consistent and robust statistically significant increases in illegal possession of a firearm, as well as an upward shift in threatening firearm behavior (i.e., brandishing a gun/pointing a firearm), net of controls and confounders. We also find significant and sizeable increases in stolen and recovered firearms in Lexington (KY), the lone setting that collected this outcome measure during our study period. We conclude by discussing how the findings can inform policy, forthcoming legislative initiatives, and future research.