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Carryover Effects on Reproduction Can Buffer Against Mortality-Driven Population Declines at Elevated Developmental

Noah T Leith^1,2,3, Anthony Macchiano^1,4, Brigitte Tenhumberg⁵

¹Department of Biology, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.

Ecology Letters

|November 11, 2025

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Elevated developmental temperatures boost insect fertility, offsetting lower juvenile survival and aiding population persistence amid global warming. These thermal carryover effects also influence mating success and reproductive morphology.

Keywords:

climate change extinction fertility genitalia mating behaviour phenotypic plasticity population dynamics sexual selection sex‐specific response thermal tolerance

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Evolutionary Biology
Climate Change Biology

Background:

Carryover effects from developmental environments significantly impact adult fitness and population persistence.
Existing models of environmental change vulnerability often overlook the combined effects on survival and reproduction.
Understanding these complex interactions is crucial for predicting species' responses to climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate how developmental temperatures affect survival and reproduction in Enchenopa binotata treehoppers.
To model the population-level consequences of these thermal carryover effects.
To assess the impact of developmental temperature variation on mating success and assortative mating.

Main Methods:

Experimental manipulation of developmental temperatures for Enchenopa binotata.
Measurement of adult survival, fertility, and reproductive morphology.
Population dynamic modeling to simulate population growth under different thermal scenarios.

Main Results:

Higher developmental temperatures increased adult fertility, compensating for reduced juvenile survival.
Pairing individuals with different developmental temperature histories led to morphological mismatches between sexes.
Mismatches reduced mating success and sperm transfer efficiency.

Conclusions:

Thermal carryover effects can mitigate population declines predicted by global warming by enhancing fertility.
These effects can drive assortative mating and selection on adult reproductive traits.
The interplay between survival and reproduction under varying developmental temperatures is key to population persistence in changing climates.