Carryover Effects on Reproduction Can Buffer Against Mortality-Driven Population Declines at Elevated Developmental...

Carryover effects broadly influence adult performance and population persistence. Although variation in developmental environments can have contrasting effects on survival and reproduction, current predictive models of vulnerability to environmental change typically ignore simultaneous changes in both fitness components. We tested how developmental temperatures shape survival and multiple aspects of reproduction in a plant-living insect (Enchenopa binotata treehoppers) and used population dynamic models to examine the cumulative impact of these complex effects on population growth. We show that elevated developmental temperatures increase adult fertility, offsetting reduced juvenile survival and potentially forestalling population declines following global warming. Moreover, pairing mates from different developmental temperatures exacerbated morphological mismatches between sexes, reducing mating success and sperm transfer. Our findings thereby provide novel evidence that thermal carryover effects can generate assortative mating and selection on adult reproductive morphology, in addition to shaping the relative importance of survival and reproduction for persistence in warming climates.